Economic analysis

Six days to D-Day

$3.3 billion cost to Tasmanian economy if pulp mill goes ahead

An economic analysis of the proposed pulp mill has been prepared for the Tasmanian Round Table for Sustainable Industries Project by Tasmanian-based Wells Economic Analysis and Melbourne-based Economist@Large. The key findings of the report are detailed below (from page 4 of the report). The full report can be found on the Launceston Environment Centre's website.

Key findings 1. The proponents have made a simple but significant error by double counting the pulp mill's tax benefit to the Tasmanian economy. 2. A benefits analysis conducted by the proponents shows an $834 million tax contribution over the life of the project but fails to show the $847.3 million in subsidies provided to the project. 3. The proponents have only provided a benefits analysis to the Tasmanian economy. They have not factored in risks and costs, including: a. Risk of respiratory disease caused by the emissions from the proposed mill, quantified in the report at $350 million. b. The cost to the Tasmania economy from converting additional agricultural land to plantations to supply the proposed mill, quantified in the report at $403 million. c. Risks to Tasmania's fishing industry due to dioxin contamination from pulp mill effluent, quantified as a medium-risk scenario that could cost the industry $693.5 million and 700 job losses over the life of the project d. Following a survey conducted by the Tasmanian Tourism Industry Council, economists were able to quantify the risk to Tasmania's tourist industry. With 84% of growth in Tourism attributable to repeat visits, a medium risk scenario will cost the Tasmanian economy $1.1 billion and 1044 jobs over the life of the project. e. If you add up risks to health and other industries plus the costs and subsidies the total is $3.3 billion. 4. Only subsidies provided by the Australian taxpayer make the mill profitable. 5. Job gains during mill construction may well be offset by the "crowding out" of other development opportunities and job losses elsewhere. 6. On a range of realistic scenarios, the Pulp Mill project may cause an economic loss to the State of Tasmania. 7. The proposed pulp mill does not represent sustainable development for Tasmania.

Wilderness Society (Tasmania)IncHobart Campaign Centre 130 Davey Street, Hobart , TAS, 7000 Australia Phone: (03) 6224 1550 | Fax: (03) 6223 5112 | Email: hobart@wilderness.org.au Launceston Campaign Centre180 Charles Street, Launceston, TAS, 7250 Phone: (03) 6331 7488 | Email: launceston@wilderness.org.au

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